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AI Capital Cycle state

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AI Capital Cycle state

What it is

AI Capital Cycle state — registry key ai_cycle_state.

AI Capital Cycle composite ordinal-state persistence (2026-07). The 23-wire silicon/power/demand composite (app/signals/ai_capital_cycle.py) was recomputed per request and NEVER persisted, so its forward-validation clock never started. This carrier writes the ordinal state {none<watch<elevated<high} at capture time so a daily series accrues, to be graded forward against SPY 60/120d max-drawdown (research/planning/prereg_ai_cycle_forward_grade_2026-07-18.md). data_only — NOT scored, NOT a lens, NOT wired into any alert/sizing/scored surface (operator Architecture Decision 7); panel-only until the forward checkpoint passes.

Data-pyramid tier

T3 — Lens. This metric sits at the lens layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: capture
Data source: computed

Derived metric — produced inside the platform (app/signals/capture.py or equivalent) rather than fetched as a raw upstream value. See the How it's computed section below for the formula.

How it’s computed

The ordinal state from app/signals/ai_capital_cycle.py:evaluate_ai_capital_cycle(load_ai_cycle_wires(), resolve_auto_wires(db, today)) — {none<watch<elevated<high} derived from the fired/amber wire counts across the silicon/power/demand/leading tracks. Persisted AT CAPTURE TIME in capture.py; the SAME call the /signals/ai-capital-cycle route makes.

Where it surfaces

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

Recomputed each capture from evaluate_ai_capital_cycle (edgar quarterly facts + web-collector auto-wires); the composite moves on a quarterly cadence but is stamped once per trade_date.

See also