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Kim-Wright 10Y Term Premium

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Kim-Wright 10Y Term Premium

What it is

Kim-Wright 10Y Term Premium — registry key acm_term_premium_10y.

FRB Kim-Wright 10-year term premium (FRED THREEFYTP10 — NOT the NY-Fed Adrian-Crump-Moench ACMTP10 series, despite the legacy column name); the term-premium component of the 10y yield, separated from rate-expectations. The forward-research probe for the drawdown-risk classifier. Ingested + persisted, not yet scored. No band classifier in this PR.

Data-pyramid tier

T0 — Raw input. This metric sits at the raw input layer of the platform’s six-tier data pyramid (T0 raw inputs → T5 actionable read). The tier reflects how far the value is from a raw measurement — not how strongly it is validated. Abstraction and validation are separate axes: a higher tier is not a claim of stronger evidence.

Horizon & validation

No validated skill horizon is on file for this metric — read it as context / a data carrier, not a validated edge. Stamps are added only when a gated research verdict lands.

Source

Source module: fred_macro
Data source: back_fillable

Fetched directly from app/sources/fred_macro.py; see source code for the upstream API call and any provider-specific handling.

How it’s computed

Raw FRB Kim-Wright 10-year Treasury term premium from FRED series THREEFYTP10 (the FRB three-factor THREEFY* family; NOT the NY-Fed Adrian-Crump-Moench ACMTP10 series despite the legacy column name), in percentage points. The term premium is the compensation investors demand for holding a 10y bond rather than rolling short-term bills — the 10y yield decomposes into an average-expected-short-rate component plus this term premium. A rising/positive term premium with a stable expected-rate path is the signature of duration-risk repricing the drawdown classifier targets. Daily FRED publication. data_only carrier — no band classifier. See app/sources/fred_macro.py (THREEFYTP10).

Where it surfaces

Health-score / alignment role

Data carrier — no implication, no health-score contribution.

Persisted for downstream consumers (sparklines, base-rate matcher, calibration substrate) but does not classify into BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH and does not contribute to the 0-100 health score.

Release cadence

FRB Kim-Wright model output via FRED; updated business-day after the underlying Treasury curve.

See also