Market Dashboard
Updated 2026-04-13 04:00:20 ET
Full Report →Market Regime
CAUTIOUS
Score reads 70 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 44% and energy regime SHOCK keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy shock in progress (WTI at $97, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.476; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 19.2 (low-fear environment); sentiment reads Bullish; seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Alerts
5Y breakeven inflation at 2.58% — inflation expectations well above Fed target.
WTI crude at $96.57 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
3-2-1 crack spread at $38.95/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
Oil market backwardation signal: energy regime SHOCK with crack spread at $38.95/bbl — supply disruption driving spot premium.
Sector breadth divergence: wide spread between strongest and weakest sectors — rotation or narrow leadership.
Oil spike alert: USO at $124.57 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
70
/100
Signal Health
?Favorable, with caution
30-Day Score Trend
Bar color tracks score range. Chart populates as daily signals accumulate.
Signal Alignment
?aligned
3 / 2 / 4
agree / disagree / neutral
Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Price History
Equity & Macro Board
Equity
| Ticker | Price | RSI | IVR | GEX | PCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $680.65 | 68.0 | 88.1↗ | Bullish | 0.58 | |
| QQQ | $612.31 | 65.1 | 86.8↗ | Bullish | 0.48 | |
| IWM | $261.82 | 71.3 | 94.8↗ | Neutral | 0.98 |
Macro
| Ticker | Price | RSI | IVR | GEX | PCR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.23 | 34.5 | 82.1 | Bearish | 1.35 | |
| TNX | 43.17 | 43.2 | 73.5 | - | N/A | |
| GLD | $436.78 | 62.4 | 54.9 | Neutral | 0.83 | |
| DXY | 98.65 | 39.8 | 56.8 | - | N/A | |
| SLV | $68.83 | 67.6 | 27.9 | Bullish | 0.61 |
Dark Pool & Liquidity
Dark Pool Activity
BullishDIX (Buy Ratio)
0.476
Strong institutional buying in dark pools
GEX (Gamma Exp.)
5.11B
Dealers are long gamma — expect lower volatility and mean reversion
DIX > 0.45 = strong buying. GEX positive = lower vol (mean reversion). GEX negative = higher vol (trend amplification).
Fed Liquidity
Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP)
$5,945B
WALCL
$6693.9B
TGA
$748.4B
RRP
$0.5B
Expanding
Rising net liquidity = more cash in system = bullish. TGA/RRP draining = liquidity injection.
Global Liquidity & BTC
BTC (Liquidity Proxy)
$70,831 ▼
Neutral
Global CB Balance Sheets
$17,113B
BTC tracks global liquidity. Rising CB balance sheets = more liquidity = risk-on.
Volatility & Options
Volatility Structure
MOVE Index (Bond Vol)
72
VIX/MOVE Ratio
0.27
Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates
MOVE > 120 = bond market stress. VIX/MOVE ratio falling = equity vol is cheap relative to rates vol.
0DTE SPY Options
Put/Call Ratio
1.18
No 0DTE Expiry Today
Volume
0 C / 0 P
PCR > 1.0 = more puts (bearish hedging). PCR < 0.7 = complacency. 0DTE volume drives intraday gamma effects.
Gamma Profile (SPY)
Put Wall (Support)
$660
Call Wall (Resistance)
$658
Dealer gamma hedging creates support at put wall and resistance at call wall. Price between walls = range-bound. Breach = accelerated move.
Credit Conditions
HY OAS Spread
2.90%
Benign
High yield credit spread over Treasuries. Rising = stress.
BBB Spread
1.05%
Normal
Investment-grade corporate spread. Widening = risk aversion.
2s10s Spread
0.50%
Normal (Steepening)
Yield curve slope. Negative = inverted (recession signal).
Credit spreads widen before equities sell off. HY OAS > 5% = distress. Watch BBB for downgrade risk near investment-grade cliff.
SPY/TNX correlation: -0.94 (warning) — stocks and yields diverging — flight to safety dynamics.
Energy & Commodities
Crude Oil
SHOCKWTI Crude
$96.57
5d: -14.1%
Brent Crude
$95.20
Spread: $-1.37
XLE (Energy Sector)
$56.94
UNG (Nat Gas)
$10.77
Refining & Fuel
3-2-1 Crack Spread
$38.95
Wide (strong refining margins)
RBOB Gasoline
$2.9600/gal
Heating Oil
$3.7600/gal
Crack spread = refiner margin. Wide spreads mean high fuel prices vs crude. Watch for demand destruction signals above $40/bbl.
Signal History
| Signal | Current | 5d Ago | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| DIX (Dark Pool) | 0.48 | 0.47 | — |
| GEX (Gamma) | 5.11 | 4.70 | — |
| HY OAS | 2.9% | 3.0% | — |
| Breadth (50d SMA) | 44.5% | 44.5% | — |
| VIX | 19.23 | 19.80 | — |
| MOVE Index | 72 | 72 | — |
| Net Liquidity | $5,945 | $5,945 | — |
Historical Context
Regime Streak
3days
Last Regime Change
2026-04-09
Days Since Critical
0days
Trend arrows compare current values against the 5-day rolling average. Rising DIX + falling HY OAS = improving conditions.
Sector Breadth
% of sector stocks above 50d SMA. Wide divergence = rotation risk.
Correlations (20-Day)
| Pair | Value | Normal | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY/VIX | -0.914 | -0.85 to -0.70 | elevated |
| SPY/DXY | -0.915 | -0.40 to +0.10 | elevated |
| SPY/TNX | -0.935 | -0.20 to +0.40 | warning |
| SPY/Oil | -0.843 | -0.30 to +0.20 | warning |
Oil shock transmitting into equities — energy stress impacting risk assets.
Macro Fundamentals
10Y Yield
4.32%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M)
0.72
Normal
Dollar Index
98.65
Risk Appetite (XLY/XLP)
1.37
Defensive
Growth vs Value
0.90
Fed Policy
Fed Funds Rate
3.50-3.75%
Next FOMC
2026-04-29
Hold
82.0%
Cut 25bp
13.0%
Market-implied rate probabilities. Rate cuts are bullish for equities and bonds. Source: FRED + CME FedWatch.
Inflation Expectations
Stagflation: MODERATE5Y Breakeven
2.58%
Above Target
10Y Breakeven
2.36%
5Y5Y Forward
2.14%
Stagflation Score
34/100
TIPS breakeven rates reflect market-implied inflation. 5Y5Y forward = long-run expectations. Score combines breakeven levels and curve inversion.
Seasonality
April
Based on 20yr SPY monthly returns. Seasonality is a weak but persistent signal.
News & Geopolitics
FX News Wire
FXStreet ↗USD/INR gains strongly as US-Iran failed negotiations lift oil prices
1h ago
EUR/USD holds near 1.1700 despite the deteriorated market sentiment
1h ago
Macroeconomics: Stagflation risks at IMF and World Bank - DBS
1h ago
Gold remains depressed as inflation worries fuel hawkish Fed bets and support USD
1h ago
Turkey Current Account Balance registered at $7.501B above expectations ($-7.5B) in February
1h ago
Turkey Current Account Balance came in at $-7.501B, below expectations ($-7.5B) in February
1h ago
BoJ's Ueda: Rising oil prices worsen Japan's trade
1h ago
Brent: Supply disruption risk supports higher prices - MUFG
1h ago
NZD/USD Price Forecast: Stays near 0.5850 after rebounding from levels near nine-day EMA
1h ago
Equities: Risk-off open expected on US‑Iran setback - Danske Bank
1h ago
Asian stocks drop as US-Iran peace talks break, US closes Hormuz
1h ago
EUR/USD: Market pricing de-escalation hopes - Commerzbank
2h ago
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds majority losses near $74 as fears of hawkish Fed outlook revives
2h ago
EUR/CAD caps near 1.6200 as Euro struggles due to risk-off mood
2h ago
Pound Sterling bounces off low; GBP/USD lacks follow-through beyond 1.3400 on firmer USD
3h ago
US President Trump: Blockade on Iranian Ports to begin officially on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET
3h ago
Saudi Arabia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
3h ago
AUD/JPY hovers around 112.50 after paring latest losses
3h ago
Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
3h ago
United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
3h ago
Iran War News
Iran International ↗China urges calm over Hormuz, says talks can ease tensions
46m ago
Iran to impose permanent mechanism to control Hormuz, military spokesman says
1h ago
US naval blockade plan shows lack of strategy, Iran MP says
1h ago
ASEAN urges US, Iran to keep talks going and uphold ceasefire
1h ago
Saudi crude sales to China set to halve in May - Bloomberg
2h ago
Iran executed at least 1,639 people in 2025, NGOs say
2h ago
Iran port blockade to start 10:00 a.m. on April 13, Trump says
3h ago
Japan closely monitoring Middle East developments, official says
3h ago
PetroChina, Qatar discuss regional tensions, oil-gas cooperation
4h ago
Whereabouts of prominent Iranian lawyer unknown 12 days after arrest
5h ago
Hormuz Strait Status
Monitor ↗Throughput
Under 2% of normal daily deadweight tonnage
Ships Transiting
Near zero (normal: ~60/day)
Stranded Vessels
150+ ships including tankers, bulk carriers, and other commercial vessels
Oil Prices
Brent crude surging due to supply disruption
War Risk Insurance
Premiums at extreme levels, over 16x normal rates
Global Impact
Economic Calendar & Earnings
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